What is xG?
Expected Goals, a measure of chance quality. Each shot is given a value between 0 and 1 for how likely an average player would be to score it, so a tap-in might be 0.8 and a long-range pot-shot 0.03.
// sports › Football / Soccer
Expected Goals (xG) Impact Calculator
Total a team's expected goals from each chance's xG and compare with goals actually scored to see over- or under-performance. xG values are user-supplied.
team xG = sum of each shot's xG ; xG difference = xG for − xG against
Frequently asked questions
Where do the xG values come from?
Proper xG models are trained on thousands of shots using angle, distance, body part and more. This calculator sums the per-shot values you provide, so it is only as good as those inputs.
What does it mean to over-perform xG?
Scoring more goals than your total xG suggests clinical finishing, or a hot streak. Under-performing suggests wasteful finishing or bad luck, which often regresses over time.
Why compare xG for and against?
Because it shows whether you created better chances than you allowed. A positive xG difference over many games is a strong sign of a good team, even if results lag.
Is high xG a guarantee of winning?
No. xG measures chance quality, not the final score. Finishing, goalkeeping and luck all sit between xG and the result, which is exactly why the comparison is interesting.